PART TWO: PROGRAM LOGICS AND THEORY OF CHANGE
2. Program Logics and Theory of Change: The same thing or different?
Program Logics and ‘Theory of Change’ (ToC) are often referred to and used interchangeably. Both propose a sequence: if we do this, then that will happen. But they are different, and each can be used to more effectively explain your program.
Some commissioning processes in the ACT request both a Program Logic and Theory of Change, so it is helpful to be prepared for and have an understanding of both.
A Program Logic focuses on depicting the structure and expected outcomes of a program and may include operational details. A ToC places a greater emphasis on the causal pathways and assumptions underlying the components of the program logic; rather than the structure of the program. It explains the rationale underpinning how the intended outcome is expected to come about, through the delivery of the program activity.
“Ideally, a theory of change explains how change is understood to come about, rather than simply linking activities to expected results with an arrow.” (Rogers, 2014)
A ToC provides an explicit, comprehensive explanation for how and why your proposed activities and approach will lead to your desired change, within a specific context. It should include the goals that the program is intended to achieve, any necessary conditions that should be in place for goals to be achieved, and assumptions about how change will occur through the interventions or activities.
“A theory of change is a diagram or written description of the strategies, actions, conditions and resources that facilitate change and achieve outcomes. It has ‘explanatory power’ (Reinholz & Andrews, 2020) in that it should explain why you think particular activities or actions will lead to particular outcomes.” (Goldsworthy, 2021)
For example, the ToC for our hypothetical biscuit analogy could be: By creating and providing children with biscuits that are fresh, healthy and delicious, we expect to see a reduction in children’s short-term hangry-ness and increased happiness.
Case Study Example:
An early intervention mental health program provides Dialectical Behaviour Therapy – Adolescents (DBT-A) to young people and their parents.
The Program Logic will identify the components required to deliver the program, such as operational inputs (e.g. appropriate staffing, venue, funding), activities (e.g. referrals, intake and assessment, group work, individual counselling, exiting), and outputs (numbers of groups or sessions, caseloads). It will identify the outcomes that these program components are expected to lead to (e.g. reduced psychological distress, increased coping skills, increased parenting capability). It may also include broader program information, such as the program aim and target group, the region being serviced, the problem it is responding to, underlying principles and theories, and external factors that could impact upon the program.
Readers unfamiliar with the program, or its intervention, may have to work harder to understand the mechanism of change. A clear and explicit ToC helps readers to understand the theory behind the program: what you are doing and why. Having a clear ToC helps to build readers’ understanding of the proposed logic behind the program.
For this program, a simple ToC may look like:
Young people in Canberra experience higher rates of psychological distress and self-harm than most other Australian jurisdictions1. Some young people may develop maladaptive strategies or behaviours in response to their distress. There is evidence that DBT-A supports young people to learn emotional regulation and coping skills, and reduce distress2, and further, to improve parenting capability3.
By providing DBT-A to young people through a validating, supportive and non-stigmatising environment, the program expects to reduce young people’s psychological distress and increase their coping skills and emotional regulation. By directly involving parents/caregivers, the program expects to improve parent-child communication and parenting capability; and reduce family conflict. In the longer-term, these outcomes are expected to improve overall family functioning and longer-term emotional wellbeing.
1 Hands Across Canberra. (2021). ACT Vital Signs 2021. Canberra: Hands Across Canberra & the Snow Foundation.
2 Macpherson, H,. Cheavens, J., Fristad, M. (2012). Dialectical Behaviour Therapy for Adolescents: Theory, Treatment Adaptations, and Empirical Outcomes. Clinical Child and Family Psychology Review, 16(1).
3 Rickwood, D., et. Al. (2021). The WOKE Program Final Evaluation Report. Canberra: University of Canberra.
Theories of Change may relate to interventions and activities, and also to practice approaches. For example, the following are simple ToCs that may be one component of a broader program:
Example: Through engaging children and young people in supported, developmentally appropriate, prosocial opportunities that aim to build their social and communication skills, we expect to increase their confidence, sense of social connection and belonging.
Example: By using practice approaches that are non-judgemental, strengths-based, relationship-focused, and respectfully curious; and which align with the Youth Work Code of Ethical Practice, we expect to improve young people’s service engagement, trust and help-seeking.
Example: By providing early, strengths-based and collaborative support to families to help them navigate, access, and engage with support systems, we expect that families will improve their access to support, and increase their skills and confidence to advocate for themselves within other systems.
So… How do a Theory of Change and Program Logic fit together?
Ideally, a ToC should underpin and inform a Program Logic. But as a narrative explanation, it can also stand on its own, helping you to explain the rationale behind your program. The ToC should be informed by the range of evidence underpinning your program.
You may include the ToC in funding applications and reporting, marketing / promotional resources, or internal staff orientation documents to explain your program to key stakeholders.
You could also include a specific section for it in your Program Logic. An example is provided in the Program Logic templates.
